Live positioning, regime and dealer gamma reads for SPX, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Gold in Macro-Hub.
Price path
Index, today = 100. Solid nominal, dashed real.
89
93
98
102
106
now36 months
Yield ladder
Nominal price change by end of horizon, 4% to 14%. Marker is the dial.
-70
-49
-27
-6
15
4%14%
4.8%
Equities: exit or hold?
Hold
Little derating at this yield. Equities beat the bond by +3.2% a year in real terms. Holding wins unless the yield keeps moving.
Fair P/E at this yield25.2xMultiple change from 21.1x+19.3%10-yr equity return, real+4.7% /yr10-yr bond, real+1.5% /yrWorst real drawdown on path0.0%
10-year path, real terms
Equities (ink) vs 10-year bond held to maturity (grey). Derating lands over four years.
95
112
129
146
163
Y2
Y4
Y6
Y8
Y10
How bumpy is the ride?
1,200 simulated paths around the trend. Band is 10th to 90th percentile below prior peak.
-62
-46
-31
-15
0
Y2
Y4
Y6
Y8
Y10
Median worst drawdown-38%1 in 10 worst case-57%Paths beyond −30%75%Paths beyond −50%20%
Annualised volatility17%
Sources and assumptions
Verified inputs carry a source and date. Estimates and model coefficients are labelled as such.
US 10-year 4.77% (FRED DGS10, 3 Sep 2026) and 30-year mortgage 6.71% (FRED MORTGAGE30US, 3 Sep 2026): spread 1.9, computed from those two series rather than typed in. Cash purchases 31.4% of US sales, Jan to Apr 2026 (Realtor.com): mortgage share 69%.
UK gilt 4.80% (FRED IRLTLT01GBM156N, 1 Jun 2026), 0.0 over Treasuries. The model uses that live gap for both the gilt premium and the UK mortgage spread; the sourced cross-check is 2-year fix 5.59%, 5-year 5.63% (Moneyfacts, 2 Sep 2026), a spread of 0.4 at the time. 1.8m fixed deals expire in 2026 (UK Finance): 62% of the book over 36 months against an estimated 8.7m stock. Gross yield 5.8% (Zoopla).
The “Today” preset is live: inflation 3.3% year on year (FRED CPIAUCSL (YoY), 1 Jul 2026) and an S&P 500 drawdown of 1% from its trailing 52-week high (Yahoo ^GSPC (52w high), 4 Sep 2026). Starting P/E 21.1x (Yahoo ^GSPC ÷ forward 12m EPS (eps-store, 2026-08-28), 4 Sep 2026). The 5%, 7%, 10% and 1981 presets keep their estimated inflation and drawdown pairings, as below.
Dubai: 44,100 sales and 11,829 mortgage registrations in Q1 2026, 67% of resales cash (Cavendish Maxwell, DLD): mortgage share 30%. Off-plan 73% of Q1 and 76% of Q2 sales: 68% default. Gross yield 6.58% in July 2026. 120,000 units scheduled for 2026, 146,400 for 2027 (Fitch, Cavendish Maxwell), handovers running at 15 to 50% of schedule: net supply 2.5% of stock. Fitch expects up to 15% correction from supply alone. Mortgage spread 0.6: 3-month EIBOR 3.87% plus bank margins of 1.00 to 2.25% gives 4.9 to 5.6% variable (July 2026 rate sheets); fixed periods run 1 to 5 years then revert to EIBOR. Simplification: the model moves EIBOR with the US 10-year one for one.
Estimates, not sourced: UK mortgage share 65%, US gross yield 5.6%, US reset share 8%, Dubai reset share 85% (inferred from 1 to 5 year fixes), net yield factors (UK 0.80, US 0.65, Dubai 0.77), preset inflation and equity drawdown pairings.
Model coefficients with no source: channel weights (0.7 affordability, 0.6 cap-rate pass-through, 0.35 off-plan stress, 0.3 wealth), adjustment half-lives, wealth betas, verdict thresholds (35 and 60). Equity calibration check: fair P/E of 8.7x at 14% yield and 11% inflation against 8x in 1981.
Outputs above 10% run heavier than the 1973 to 1977 and 1989 to 1993 UK episodes (real falls of 35 to 37%). Treat them as an upper bound. Monte Carlo uses constant volatility, so tail drawdowns are understated versus history. This is a scenario tool, not a forecast or investment advice.